Aberdeenshire North and Moray East · Scotland
Vote Reform UK in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Reform UK is the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and has a realistic route to winning it if enough Conservative voters switch (that is, vote tactically).
Con–Reform gap: 7.1 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
7.1 ptsCon–Reform gap
0.9 ptsBehind SNP
MediumConfidence
Why this result?
- Reform UK leads the Conservatives by 7.1 points on current projections.
- Reform UK is projected 0.9 points behind the SNP; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake the SNP.
- The most recent dedicated Scotland polling is somewhat dated, so treat this projection with some caution.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by the SNP with a majority of 2.5 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog