Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock · Scotland
Too close to call in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Current lean: Reform UK
Reform UK is slightly ahead in this constituency but the gap is inside our margin of uncertainty or error — we can only describe this as a lean, not make a recommendation.
We encourage you to check here again as polling, candidates and local evidence develop and a general election approaches.
Con–Reform gap: 2.2 points — inside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
2.2 ptsCon–Reform gap
6.7 ptsBehind SNP
MediumConfidence
Why this result?
- Reform UK is fractionally ahead — by 2.2 points over the Conservatives — but that is inside our margin of uncertainty or error, so treat this as a lean rather than a firm recommendation.
- The Conservatives and Reform UK are 2.2 points apart — inside our model’s 7-point margin of uncertainty or error.
- the SNP currently leads in this seat; the centre-right picture may be clarified as new evidence and information arrives.
- The most recent dedicated Scotland polling is somewhat dated, so treat this projection with some caution.
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This is for factual corrections, not for arguing the recommendation. Any correction which changes a result or recommendation will be explained in our next update.
Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog