Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney · Wales
Vote Reform UK in Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Reform UK is the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and has a realistic route to winning it if enough Conservative voters switch (that is, vote tactically).
Changed from “No realistic route to centre-right victory at present” on 3 September 2026.
Con–Reform gap: 7.6 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
7.6 ptsCon–Reform gap
6.8 ptsBehind Labour
MediumConfidence
Why this result?
- Reform UK leads the Conservatives by 7.6 points on current projections.
- Reform UK is projected 6.8 points behind Labour; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake Labour.
- A consolidated centre-right vote beats Labour only under favourable assumptions about tactical voting — treat this as a marginal opportunity rather than a safe one.
- Reform UK did not stand in this constituency in 2024, so its projection here is estimated from the national picture and is less reliable.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog