Bolton West · England
Vote Reform UK in Bolton West
Reform UK is the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and has a realistic route to winning it if enough Conservative voters switch (that is, vote tactically).
Changed from “Too close to call” on 3 September 2026.
Con–Reform gap: 7.2 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
7.2 ptsCon–Reform gap
0.2 ptsBehind Labour
HighConfidence
Why this result?
- Reform UK leads the Conservatives by 7.2 points on current projections.
- Reform UK is projected 0.2 points behind Labour; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake Labour.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by Labour with a majority of 11.1 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog