Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe · Wales

Vote Conservatives in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

The Conservatives are currently the strongest centre-right party in this constituency and have the clearest route to winning.

Changed from “Too close to call” on 7 October 2026.

Conservative26.7%

Liberal Democrat26.1%

Reform UK18.3%

Labour12.0%

Plaid Cymru10.4%

Green5.0%

Con–Reform gap: 8.4 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.

8.4 ptsCon–Reform gap

LeadingProjected position

HighConfidence

Why this result?

The Conservatives lead Reform UK by 8.4 points on current projections.
The Conservatives are narrowly ahead in this competitive seat; the projected margin is small.
In July 2024 this seat was won by the Liberal Democrats with a majority of 3.2 points.

High confidence · Model v1.2 published 7 October 2026 · Data to 7 October 2026

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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog