Bristol East · England
No realistic route to centre-right victory in Bristol East at present
Neither centre-right party is currently close enough to the projected winner in this constituency for tactical voting between them to be likely to change the result.
In this constituency, vote for the party you actually want.
Con–Reform gap: 10.0 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
10.0 ptsCon–Reform gap
18.2 ptsBehind Green
MediumConfidence
Why this result?
- Even if 80% of the weaker centre-right party’s vote transferred, the combined total would still fall 11 points short of the Green Party.
- Reform UK did not stand in this constituency in 2024, so its projection here is estimated from the national picture and is less reliable.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by Labour with a majority of 14.3 points.
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This is for factual corrections, not for arguing the recommendation. Any correction which changes a result or recommendation will be explained in our next update.
Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog