Vote Right

Central Ayrshire · Scotland

Vote Reform UK in Central Ayrshire

Reform UK is the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and has a realistic route to winning it if enough Conservative voters switch (that is, vote tactically).

Con–Reform gap: 8.5 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.

8.5 ptsCon–Reform gap
8.9 ptsBehind SNP
MediumConfidence

Why this result?

  1. Reform UK leads the Conservatives by 8.5 points on current projections.
  2. Reform UK is projected 8.9 points behind the SNP; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake the SNP.
  3. A consolidated centre-right vote beats the SNP only under favourable assumptions about tactical voting — treat this as a marginal opportunity rather than a safe one.
  4. The most recent dedicated Scotland polling is somewhat dated, so treat this projection with some caution.

Medium confidence · Model v1.2 published 7 October 2026 · Data to 7 October 2026

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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog