Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale · Scotland
Vote Conservatives in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
The Conservatives are currently the strongest centre-right party in this constituency and have the clearest route to winning.
Changed from “Too close to call” on 3 September 2026.
Con–Reform gap: 7.8 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
7.8 ptsCon–Reform gap
LeadingProjected position
MediumConfidence
Why this result?
- The Conservatives lead Reform UK by 7.8 points on current projections.
- The Conservatives are narrowly ahead in this competitive seat; the projected margin is small.
- The most recent dedicated Scotland polling is somewhat dated, so treat this projection with some caution.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by the Conservatives with a majority of 9.6 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog