Vote Right

Harrogate and Knaresborough · England

Vote Conservatives in Harrogate and Knaresborough

The Conservatives are the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and have a realistic route to winning it if enough Reform UK voters switch (that is, vote tactically).

Con–Reform gap: 8.3 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.

8.3 ptsCon–Reform gap
13.5 ptsBehind Liberal Democrat
HighConfidence

Why this result?

  1. The Conservatives lead Reform UK by 8.3 points on current projections.
  2. The Conservatives are projected 13.5 points behind the Liberal Democrats; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake them.
  3. A consolidated centre-right vote beats the Liberal Democrats only under favourable assumptions about tactical voting — treat this as a marginal opportunity rather than a safe one.
  4. In July 2024 this seat was won by the Liberal Democrats with a majority of 15.8 points.

High confidence · Model v1.2 published 7 October 2026 · Data to 7 October 2026

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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog