Holborn and St Pancras · England
No realistic route to centre-right victory in Holborn and St Pancras at present
Neither centre-right party is currently close enough to the projected winner in this constituency for tactical voting between them to be likely to change the result.
In this constituency, vote for the party you actually want.
Con–Reform gap: 3.9 points — inside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
3.9 ptsCon–Reform gap
29.5 ptsBehind Labour
HighConfidence
Why this result?
- Even if 80% of the weaker centre-right party’s vote transferred, the combined total would still fall 24.6 points short of Labour.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by Labour with a majority of 27.4 points.
- By-election on 8 October 2026 after Keir Starmer resigned the seat. Conservative candidate Ewan Cameron and Reform UK candidate Peter Newman are on the official list of 15 candidates.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog