Lothian East · Scotland
No realistic route to centre-right victory in Lothian East at present
Neither centre-right party is currently close enough to the projected winner in this constituency for tactical voting between them to be likely to change the result.
In this constituency, vote for the party you actually want.
Changed from “Vote Reform UK” on 3 September 2026.
Con–Reform gap: 6.7 points — inside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
6.7 ptsCon–Reform gap
11.8 ptsBehind Labour
MediumConfidence
Why this result?
- Even if 80% of the weaker centre-right party’s vote transferred, the combined total would still fall 2.6 points short of Labour.
- The most recent dedicated Scotland polling is somewhat dated, so treat this projection with some caution.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by Labour with a majority of 27.6 points.
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This is for factual corrections, not for arguing the recommendation. Any correction which changes a result or recommendation will be explained in our next update.
Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog