Mid and South Pembrokeshire · Wales
Vote Conservatives in Mid and South Pembrokeshire
The Conservatives are ahead of Reform UK and other parties in this constituency and are currently projected to win this seat.
Changed from “Too close to call” on 7 October 2026.
Con–Reform gap: 10.0 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
10.0 ptsCon–Reform gap
LeadingProjected position
HighConfidence
Why this result?
- The Conservatives lead Reform UK by 10 points on current projections.
- The Conservatives are currently projected to win this seat with a clear margin.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by Labour with a majority of 4 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog