Mid Dorset and North Poole · England
Vote Conservatives in Mid Dorset and North Poole
The Conservatives are the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and have a realistic route to winning it if enough Reform UK voters switch (that is, vote tactically).
Con–Reform gap: 8.4 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
8.4 ptsCon–Reform gap
1.6 ptsBehind Liberal Democrat
MediumConfidence
Why this result?
- The Conservatives lead Reform UK by 8.4 points on current projections.
- The Conservatives are projected 1.6 points behind the Liberal Democrats; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake them.
- Reform UK did not stand in this constituency in 2024, so its projection here is estimated from the national picture and is less reliable.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by the Liberal Democrats with a majority of 2.7 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog