Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey · Scotland
Vote Conservatives in Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
The Conservatives are the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and have a realistic route to winning it if enough Reform UK voters switch (that is, vote tactically).
Changed from “Too close to call” on 3 September 2026.
Con–Reform gap: 7.2 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
7.2 ptsCon–Reform gap
8.2 ptsBehind SNP
MediumConfidence
Why this result?
- The Conservatives lead Reform UK by 7.2 points on current projections.
- The Conservatives are projected 8.2 points behind the SNP; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake the SNP.
- The most recent dedicated Scotland polling is somewhat dated, so treat this projection with some caution.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by the SNP with a majority of 2.1 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog