Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West · England
Vote Reform UK in Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West
Reform UK is the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and has a realistic route to winning it if enough Conservative voters switch (that is, vote tactically).
Con–Reform gap: 20.9 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
20.9 ptsCon–Reform gap
5.6 ptsBehind Labour
HighConfidence
Why this result?
- Reform UK leads the Conservatives by 20.9 points on current projections.
- Reform UK is projected 5.6 points behind Labour; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake Labour.
- A consolidated centre-right vote beats Labour only under favourable assumptions about tactical voting — treat this as a marginal opportunity rather than a safe one.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by Labour with a majority of 26.7 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog