North West Essex · England
Vote Conservatives in North West Essex
The Conservatives are currently the strongest centre-right party in this constituency and have the clearest route to winning.
Changed from “Too close to call” on 7 October 2026.
Con–Reform gap: 7.3 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
7.3 ptsCon–Reform gap
LeadingProjected position
HighConfidence
Why this result?
- The Conservatives lead Reform UK by 7.3 points on current projections.
- The Conservatives are narrowly ahead in this competitive seat; the projected margin is small.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by the Conservatives with a majority of 4.8 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog