Oxford East · England
No realistic route to centre-right victory in Oxford East at present
Neither centre-right party is currently close enough to the projected winner in this constituency for tactical voting between them to be likely to change the result.
In this constituency, vote for the party you actually want.
Con–Reform gap: 12.2 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
12.2 ptsCon–Reform gap
12.4 ptsBehind Labour
MediumConfidence
Why this result?
- Even if 80% of the weaker centre-right party’s vote transferred, the combined total would still fall 5.6 points short of Labour.
- Reform UK did not stand in this constituency in 2024, so its projection here is estimated from the national picture and is less reliable.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by Labour with a majority of 33 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog