Plymouth Sutton and Devonport · England
Vote Reform UK in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Reform UK is the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and has a realistic route to winning it if enough Conservative voters switch (that is, vote tactically).
Con–Reform gap: 14.7 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
14.7 ptsCon–Reform gap
10.5 ptsBehind Labour
HighConfidence
Why this result?
- Reform UK leads the Conservatives by 14.7 points on current projections.
- Reform UK is projected 10.5 points behind Labour; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake Labour.
- A consolidated centre-right vote beats Labour only under favourable assumptions about tactical voting — treat this as a marginal opportunity rather than a safe one.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by Labour with a majority of 31.7 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog