Surrey Heath · England
Too close to call in Surrey Heath
Current lean: Conservatives
The Conservatives are slightly ahead in this constituency but the gap is inside our margin of uncertainty or error — we can only describe this as a lean, not make a recommendation.
We encourage you to check here again as polling, candidates and local evidence develop and a general election approaches.
Changed from “Vote Conservatives” on 3 September 2026.
Con–Reform gap: 6.9 points — inside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
6.9 ptsCon–Reform gap
9.8 ptsBehind Liberal Democrat
HighConfidence
Why this result?
- The Conservatives are fractionally ahead — by 6.9 points over Reform UK — but that is inside our margin of uncertainty or error, so treat this as a lean rather than a firm recommendation.
- The Conservatives and Reform UK are 6.9 points apart — inside our model’s 7-point margin of uncertainty or error.
- the Liberal Democrats currently lead in this seat; the centre-right picture may be clarified as new evidence and information arrives.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by the Liberal Democrats with a majority of 11.8 points.
Spotted an error on this page? Tell us.
This is for factual corrections, not for arguing the recommendation. Any correction which changes a result or recommendation will be explained in our next update.
Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog