Swindon South · England
Too close to call in Swindon South
Current lean: Conservatives
The Conservatives are slightly ahead in this constituency but the gap is inside our margin of uncertainty or error — we can only describe this as a lean, not make a recommendation.
We encourage you to check here again as polling, candidates and local evidence develop and a general election approaches.
Con–Reform gap: 0.3 points — inside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
0.3 ptsCon–Reform gap
16.4 ptsBehind Labour
HighConfidence
Why this result?
- The Conservatives are fractionally ahead — by 0.3 points over Reform UK — but that is inside our margin of uncertainty or error, so treat this as a lean rather than a firm recommendation.
- The Conservatives and Reform UK are 0.3 points apart — inside our model’s 7-point margin of uncertainty or error.
- Labour currently leads in this seat; the centre-right picture may be clarified as new evidence and information arrives.
- A consolidated centre-right vote beats Labour only under favourable assumptions about tactical voting — treat this as a marginal opportunity rather than a safe one.
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This is for factual corrections, not for arguing the recommendation. Any correction which changes a result or recommendation will be explained in our next update.
Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog