Vote Right

West Lancashire · England

Vote Reform UK in West Lancashire

Reform UK is the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and has a realistic route to winning it if enough Conservative voters switch (that is, vote tactically).

Con–Reform gap: 12.3 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.

12.3 ptsCon–Reform gap
11.2 ptsBehind Labour
HighConfidence

Why this result?

  1. Reform UK leads the Conservatives by 12.3 points on current projections.
  2. Reform UK is projected 11.2 points behind Labour; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake Labour.
  3. A consolidated centre-right vote beats Labour only under favourable assumptions about tactical voting — treat this as a marginal opportunity rather than a safe one.
  4. In July 2024 this seat was won by Labour with a majority of 30.8 points.

High confidence · Model v1.2 published 7 October 2026 · Data to 7 October 2026

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