Winchester · England
No realistic route to centre-right victory in Winchester at present
Neither centre-right party is currently close enough to the projected winner in this constituency for tactical voting between them to be likely to change the result.
In this constituency, vote for the party you actually want.
Con–Reform gap: 10.9 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
10.9 ptsCon–Reform gap
21.1 ptsBehind Liberal Democrat
HighConfidence
Why this result?
- Even if 80% of the weaker centre-right party’s vote transferred, the combined total would still fall 9.5 points short of the Liberal Democrats.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by the Liberal Democrats with a majority of 24.2 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog