Wokingham · England
Vote Conservatives in Wokingham
The Conservatives are the stronger centre-right party in this constituency and have a realistic route to winning it if enough Reform UK voters switch (that is, vote tactically).
Changed from “No realistic route to centre-right victory at present” on 7 October 2026.
Con–Reform gap: 12.1 points — outside the 7-point too-close-to-call band.
12.1 ptsCon–Reform gap
13.3 ptsBehind Liberal Democrat
HighConfidence
Why this result?
- The Conservatives lead Reform UK by 12.1 points on current projections.
- The Conservatives are projected 13.3 points behind the Liberal Democrats; a consolidated centre-right vote is projected to overtake them.
- A consolidated centre-right vote beats the Liberal Democrats only under favourable assumptions about tactical voting — treat this as a marginal opportunity rather than a safe one.
- In July 2024 this seat was won by the Liberal Democrats with a majority of 15.4 points.
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Independent of the Conservatives and Reform UK · Methodology · Independence and funding · Changelog